Oscars 2016: Picking the Academy Award winners.

By Monique Ross

Who will win, who will walk away empty-handed, and who could cause an upset at the Academy Awards?

Predicting who will take home Oscars gold on Monday is a tricky business, especially in a year so jam-packed with contenders.

But I've got your back, and my crystal ball suggests history is about to be made.

Best picture

• The nominees: The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Room, The Big Short, Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, Spotlight
• My pick: Spotlight
• Major threat: The Revenant
• Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

It's an epic tug of war between Spotlight and The Revenant, but I'm backing the former for the top prize.

Tom McCarthy's film examines the true story of the Boston Globe's painstaking expose of systemic child abuse by Catholic priests in a measured and thought-provoking way.

It's also very topical, which goes a long way with the Academy (more than 7,000 people from 17 branches for specific crafts in movie-making), and also has wide support, as evidenced by its nods in the editing, screenplay, acting and director stakes.

It won the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, meaning it's the actors' pick — and actors make up the largest bloc of Academy voters. It also won best picture at the Critics' Choice Awards.

It was a tough call to put Spotlight forward over The Revenant. It is viewed by many as the frontrunner and it's not hard to see why. It's an extraordinary feat of filmmaking that has already been rewarded with the top trophy at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs.

It scored Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu the top Directors Guild Award, which historically is the best indicator of best picture success.

But on the flip side, The Revenant has Oscar history against it. It missed out on a SAG ensemble nomination, and isn't up for the best screenplay Oscar, an unofficial "requirement" to win best picture. (The last film to win best picture without a screenplay nod was Titanic, but I don't know what that tells us.)

Adding to that, Inarritu's Birdman won the best picture prize last year, and though I do think he'll win back-to-back directing gongs, I question if the Academy would give the prestigious best picture award to the same man two years running.

The Big Short is also a strong contender and definitely the dark horse in the Academy Awards race. It won a Producers Guild of America award and picked up steam ahead of the Oscars, but I think it has more chance of taking home trophies in categories like best screenplay.

With the field so wide open, we also can't forgetMad Max: Fury Road — undeniably one of the films of the year. It's the least Oscar-bait of all the nominees and deserves to taste glory, because it showed an exhilarating action film can also serve up rich characters and a layered story.

But despite a swag of awards, and being named film of the year by the Grand Prix of the International Federation of Film Critics, it probably won't win.

Working against it, aside from the fierce competition, is the fact genre films rarely take home the golden statue (the notable exception being The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, which is also the only film to win in every nominated category and claim a clean sweep of the awards). It should sweep the technical awards, though.

What about the rest of the pack? The challenging (and somehow uplifting)Room should net star Brie Larson the best actress award, but is unlikely to claim the top prize, while Brooklyn was well received on a critical level it was largely overlooked in the awards season. Crowd pleaser The Martianpicked up a Golden Globe for best comedy film (to the surprise of star Matt Damon) but it's too upbeat for the Oscars. (Though there's always room for a shock victory — remember when Crash beat Brokeback Mountain!?)

Best director

• The nominees: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (The Revenant), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), Lenny Abrahamson (Room), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) Adam McKay (The Big Short)
• My pick: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
• But don't forget: George Miller

Sometimes you watch a movie and think "yeah, but what did the director actually DO?" The Revenant is not one of those films.

The conditions Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu worked in were almost as brutal as the film itself - we're talking filming in sub-zero temperatures, travelling to extremely remote locations and only using natural light — a rare move in today's movie-making world.

The Academy loves to reward such grand shows of hard work, especially when the fruit is as satisfying as The Revenant. Inarritu has scooped directors awards in the run-up to the film, including the prestigious top Directors Guild Award (DGA).

Only seven DGA winners have gone on to lose the best director Oscar.

What could hinder its chances? Inarritu picked up the best director gong last year for Birdman, and there's a chance the Academy won't reward him again so soon.

Having said that, they do love making history, and if Inarritu wins back-to-back awards he will become the first person in 65 years to do so, and only the third ever. (Also, given Alfonso Cuaron won best director for Gravity two years ago, it also bould be the third consecutive Oscars win for a Mexican director.)

Writer, producer and director George Miller is the other one to watch (Go Aussie, Go!). The respected filmmaker behind the Mad Max franchise won an Oscar for Happy Feet in 2006, but this is his first nomination for best director.

He won a number of critics awards, but missed out on the DGA and the Golden Globe.

There is a chance, however, the Academy will honour Miller's legacy with a coveted directing trophy — just like they did back in 2007 for veteran Martin Scorsese.

If Spotlight loses in the best picture stakes, Tom McCarthy could prove the dark horse for the director gong - a consolation prize of sorts from the Academy. Adam McKay being a comedy director will be hard for Academy voters to swallow, and while Lenny Abrahamson beat out some big names to score a nomination (looking at you, Ridley Scott and Steven Spielberg), he isn't really in with a chance.

Best actor

• The nominees: Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), Matt Damon (The Martian), Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
• My pick: Leonardo DiCaprio
• Outside chance: Bryan Cranston

Leonardo DiCaprio deserves to win for his turn as frontiersman Hugh Glass.

Not just for his gut-wrenching performance or because he ate a raw bison liver, but for all the times he should have won and didn't. The run of snubs that saw the superstar become a hilarious meme is likely to finally end this year.

DiCaprio eclipsed his rivals to win everything he was nominated for in the run-up to the Oscars — among them a Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award, a Golden Globe, a BAFTA and a Critics' Choice award.

That's evidence of his support across a broad spread of Academy voters. And let's not forget the Oscars are a bit of a popularity contest, and there's nobody more popular for this award than DiCaprio.

If anyone pulls off an upset win, it will be beloved actor Bryan Cranston. Trumbo has a string of nominations under its belt, including an ensemble bid at the SAG awards — voted on by actors, which make up the largest Academy branch. Academy members have plenty of chances to put a mark beside The Revenant on the ballot, but not many to support Trumbo … just saying.

Eddie Redmayne won last year for his turn as Steven Hawking, and is actually stronger in The Danish Girl. But as much as the Academy loves a transformation, the film itself was not well received. Michael Fassbenderis always solid, and he turns in another strong, moody performance as the Apple founder, but it won't be enough. Matt Damon surprised critics, but he already has a Golden Globe and the Academy is unlikely to add an Oscar to that.

Best actress

• The nominees: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn), Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), Charlotte Rampling (45 Years), Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
• My pick: Brie Larson
• Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan

Brie Larson is the heart and soul of Room, in which she plays a young woman imprisoned in a shed with her five-year-old son, and it would be a huge surprise if she goes home empty-handed.

The breakout role marks her shift away from the indie films that have defined her career so far, and hasn't gone unnoticed in the lead-up to the Oscars.

Larson has dominated the awards season, picking up awards at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs and the Critics' Choice Awards. She deserves to add an Oscar to her trophy cabinet, and likely will.

Her main rival is Saoirse Ronan, who has been a runner-up all season, with the exception of a win at the Satellite Awards. Ronan is in with a chance for her role in Brooklyn, about a woman forced to move from rural Ireland to New York in the 1950s.

Ronan, who missed out in the supporting actress category for her role in 2007's Atonement, has been seen as the runner-up in the category for some time, and could make a late surge to victory.

The other leading lady we can't forget (and how could we, really?) is Cate Blanchett. She always turns in excellent performances but I think she needs a more extraordinary role to really make waves with the Academy. Joy earned the uber-popular Jennifer Lawrence her fourth Oscar nod, but she's already won twice and the Academy likes to share the love. Plus, she's the film's only nomination, which reveals a lot about how the Academy feels about Joy.

Respected veteran Charlotte Rampling is terrific as well, but she made the fatal error of calling the Oscars diversity boycott "racist to white people". She's apologised, but the controversial remarks will shut her out of the race.

Best supporting actor

• The nominees: Christian Bale (The Big Short), Sylvester Stallone (Creed), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight) Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
• My pick: Sylvester Stallone
• Also watch: Mark Rylance

I never thought I'd say this, but my money's on Sylvester Stallone. The veteran underdog and the Academy Awards may not seem like an obvious match, but Hollywood loves a fairytale ending and seems likely to hand one to Sly almost 40 years after his first Oscar nod.

Stallone picked up the Golden Globe (and our collective hearts melted when he thanked his "imaginary friend Rocky Balboa") along with a Critics' Choice Award.

In terms of award-winning rivals, his biggest threat had been Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation. He picked up a Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award and was nominated for a Globe and a BAFTA. The SAGs are usually the best Oscars predictor... but Elba was snubbed by the Academy Awards (#OscarsSoWhite, anyone?)

What's working against Stallone? He's the only nominee in the category whose film isn't up for best picture, which historically speaking doesn't bode well for him.

If not Stallone, my money's on Mark Rylance. He is highly respected and won accolades from a lot of critics for his turn in historical drama-thriller Bridge of Spies. He pulled off a win at the BAFTA awards, and the Academy may honour the stage veteran and first-time Oscar nominee with a statue.

Mark Ruffalo and Christian Bale are also strong, but are nominated more for the strength of their films than their actual performances. I think the Academy will feel a nomination is honour enough for them. Some of Leonardo DiCaprio's popularity might wash off on Tom Hardy, but not enough to secure him a win.

Best supporting actress

• The nominees: Rooney Mara (Carol), Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
• My pick: Alicia Vikander
• Close contender: Kate Winslet

Alicia Vikander is the clear frontrunner to take out the best supporting actress category for her role in The Danish Girl (though I think her performance in Ex Machina was more deserving of an Oscar nod).

Her performance is measured and raw, and has earned her a Screen Actors Guild award, a Critics' Choice trophy, a Satellite award and an honour from the Chicago Film Critics Association — some of the most historically predictive awards.

Superstar Kate Winslet, who won the best actress Oscar in 2008 for The Reader, is hot on her heels for her turn in Steve Jobs.

She picked up momentum after winning a BAFTA and a Golden Globe award for the role, which earned a lot of love but the movie itself didn't earn much acclaim.

Rooney Mara (whose lead-worthy role could — and should — have been nominated in the best actress category, were it not so jam-packed) also turned in a strong performance but failed to make waves at previous awards. Jennifer Jason Leigh and Rachel McAdams also join the nominations club this year, but are unlikely to make it to the stage. If The Hateful Eight was more popular, Leigh might have caused an upset.

Illustration by Tim Madden

This post originally appeared on ABC News.