One of the most interesting people I follow on Twitter is Chas Licciardello. You might recognise him from The Chaser but like all of those guys, he’s a whole lot more than just hilarious. He’s bloody smart. He is a voracious reader and unearths some of the most fascinating links to stories you would never otherwise find. I learn a lot from his tweets.
One of his areas of particular fascination is American politics. So interested is he that he has a separate Twitter account here where he tweets exclusively about that. He’s thoughtful like that. I keep half an ear open to US political news – I despaired of the global effect of that goose George Dubuya and like the rest of the world was captivated by Barack Obama and jubilant when he was elected president two years ago.
They have such big characters there politically from the sublime Obama to the ridiculous Sarah Palin – but I’m extremely short on detail.Chas helps me out from time to time when I pester him with questions about how certain things work in the US – like the recent health care reform. He’s patient like that.
So anyway. Like me, you may have been hearing quite a bit about The Tea Party in the US.
For example I also keep hearing about the mid-term elections and how the Democrats are set to be “wiped out” by the Republicans. I realised that I need to understand both those things so I’m working on the basis that other Mamamia readers may also be interested.
Americans go to the polls again tomorrow – which confuses me because Obama is only halfway through his first term in office.
So many things I don’t understand.
That’s why I asked Chas to write this guest post to explain it all in SIMPLE terms because that’s all I’m capable of and it’s Melbourne Cup day.
Chas writes……
So what are the mid-terms?
The American political system works like this:
- There’s a President (4 year terms)
- There’s a Lower House (“The House” – 435 seats, 2 year terms)
- There’s an Upper House (“The Senate” – 100 seats, 6 year terms)
Every 2 years there’s an election which sees the entire House and 1/3 of the Senate elected. Every 2nd election, the President is elected as well.
In order for a law to be passed, it needs to go through both the House and the Senate and be signed by the President.
It’s really not all that different to the Australian system, except our head of state (the Governor-General) isn’t elected, and spends more time giving speeches at flower shows than declaring wars. I’ll let you decide which system you prefer.
What’s the situation currently in the House and Senate?
Democrats hold 255 of the 435 seats in the House and 59 of the 100 seats in the Senate.
And what’s expected to happen tomorrow?
Most people expect the Republicans to win 45-60 extra seats in the House, handing them control of it (the magic number is 39 seats). They’re also expected to win 6-8 extra seats in the Senate, falling just short of gaining control there (the magic number is 10 seats).
Most people also expect Sarah Palin to tweet something stupid.
Why is it such a big deal if Republicans take the House?
Barack Obama will still be President tomorrow, no matter what happens. This means Republicans won’t be able to pass any laws without his signature. But there are two things they can do if they take the House:
1) Block everything. And if they block the Budget, the Government shuts down. That’s a pretty big deal.
2) Launch a flurry of dubious, partisan investigations. Keeping Obama accountable would be excellent. However, Monica Lewinsky Part 2 (A Muslim Kenyan Socialist Odyssey) would not be.
There have been a number of threats along these lines in Tea Party circles. Whether their elected representatives follow up on those threats remains to be seen.
Where does the Tea Party fit into all of this?
Tea Party protestorsThe Tea Party started off as a small government, low taxes movement a few years back. But increasingly they’ve been hijacked by FOX News, Glenn Beck and Republican interest groups, who promoted them as the passionate face of anti-Obama sentiment. These days they’re more like the right-wing activist arm of the Republican party.
The Tea Party’s major role in the election was during the Republican primaries. (Primaries are like public versions of pre-selections. Republicans and Democrats vote for who will be representing them in the upcoming elections). In this year’s Republican primaries, hundreds of Tea Party supporters ran to replace moderate Republicans. Many won, and those who didn’t win scared their moderate competitors into taking more conservative positions. So there are more hardcore right-wing Republicans running for office this year than usual. And there’ll probably be even more in 2012.
Are the Tea Party sowing the seeds for future Republican losses?
Depressed lefties console themselves with the thought that the Tea Party is pushing Republicans so far to the right that they’ll become entirely unelectable. They’re kidding themselves.
America is going through a seriously tough time at the moment. Their unemployment is as skyhigh as their deficit. And in the short term there isn’t even the prospect of recovery. Understandably, voters have a strong “kick the bums out” impulse, and right now the biggest bum is in the Oval Office. If things don’t improve, he and his party are gone. Simple.
What are we looking out for tomorrow?
1) Can Republicans win 39 House seats and therefore take the House?
2) Can Republicans win 10 Senate seats and take the Senate?
3) Will Senate Leader Harry Reid hold onto his Senate seat in Nevada? He is very much 50-50 at the moment. It would be extremely embarrassing if he lost that seat – even moreso when you consider how rubbish his opponent is. (Trust me, she is.)
4) Will Sarah Palin’s two most prominent endorsees (Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Joe Miller in Alaska) lose? Both are in trouble and that could take some shine off Palin’s perceived Midas touch
5) Does Proposition 19 get up in California? This ballot proposition fully legalises marijuana. If it gets up, expect a whole bunch of other states to follow suit, and the US might be on its way to becoming the new Holland.
Why are you asking yourself questions?
Because I’m lonely. Maybe it’s because I talk so much about American politics.
Phew! Now I get it.
If you have any questions for Chas, ask them in comments and I’m sure he’ll reply.
You should follow Chas on Twitter here (his main account) and also his tweets about US politics here.
You should also buy the new Chaser annual called Eat, Pray, Vomit (I’m buying it for the title alone) which you can do here.
Top Comments
What age does Mamamia target? Because I thought that this was supposed to be aimed at an intelligent, sophisticated reader.
Honestly, the preface to Chas's piece here made me feel like I was reading Dolly magazine.
I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that most people have some understanding of American politics.
Well 116 comments of interested and engaged discussion later (based on a simple explanatory post) and you come out with that. Go pat yourself on the back for letting yourself feel so superior. Your comment sure didn't add much sophistication to the site.
And I don't expect it to. I'm just expressing my disappointment in a website that I have higher expectations of
Well Susan, I'm in my 40s and the US system is very different to the Westminster system we have going here, which I learned about in high school (25 years ago). While I'm interested, I really don't care to put in a huge effort to learn the ins and outs of the US system. A simplified explanation is therefore actually appreciated.
Susan - you over-estimate the intelligence of the average Australian. Maybe readers of mamma-mia are above average, however, most Australians barely understand their own system of government. I suspect most people's understanding of the US system of government is that there is a "president" and that's about it.
This is a very interesting take on the US as a country in decline from Der Spiegel:
http://www.spiegel.de/inter...
No need to break out the high school German, the article has been translated.