Cory Bernardi: What does his defection mean for the Senate?

By Tim Leslie.

Surprisingly, not that much for now.

But in the longer term Senator Cory Bernardi’s defection from the Liberals to form his own party will make things even more complicated for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to get his agenda through the Upper House.

And there are unexpected consequences for the Greens too.

Let’s break it down. It’s a little complicated, but stick with us.

Okay, what does the Senate look like now?

The Coalition won 30 Senate seats at the last election. As the left column shows, that leaves it nine short of the 39 votes needed to pass legislation.

With Senator Bernardi’s departure, the Coalition is down to 29 seats, meaning it would need to win over 10 more senators every time it wants to pass a law — and that’s no easy feat.

But hang on, actually, that’s not quite right.  It did need 39 seats but at the moment it only needs 38.

That’s because Family First Senator Bob Day resigned last year. His seat remains vacant, with its fate to be decided in the High Court.

Australian politics is never simple, right?

So the Upper House is now made up of 10 different voting blocks:

• Coalition (29 seats)
• Labor (26)
• Greens (9)
• One Nation (4)
• Nick Xenophon Team (3)
• Australian Conservatives
• Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party
• Jacqui Lambie Network
• Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm
• Family First’s Bob Day (vacant)

Bob Day has given Turnbull a reprieve… for now

The combination of Bob Day’s resignation (the Government needs one less vote) and Senator Bernardi’s defection (it has one less vote) means it is now in essentially the same position as when it was elected.

That means that for the time being, it either needs the support of Labor, the Greens or an unruly band of crossbenchers to pass legislation.

However, at some point Mr Day’s seat is going to be filled, most likely either by Family First or Labor.

When that does happen, things are going to get even trickier for the Government.

TLDR: Bernadi’s move changes little immediately, but it will over time.

The Greens won’t be a kingmaker any more

While the Greens may seem strange bedfellows for the Coalition, the appeal for the Government was it only had to negotiate with one block.

And under the helm of Richard Di Natale, the Greens have shown themselves willing to engage with the Government.

Late last year the Greens rode to the rescue of the Government to pass the backpacker tax, after negotiations with the crossbench fell apart at the last minute.

And in the last Parliament, they supported the Coalition on voting reform and multinational tax avoidance.

But this power to deliver the numbers to pass legislation will only last until Bob Day’s vacancy is filled.

Once that happens the Coalition would need the nine Greens votes plus one other.

TLDR: Before Bernardi split, the Greens had enough votes to deliver a majority for the Coalition; now they don’t.

The easiest way to pass legislation is still Labor

For all the bluster and grandstanding, much of what happens in the Senate is done with the support of both major parties.

In fact, despite Mr Turnbull labelling the last Parliament unworkable, Labor voted with the Coalition 40 per cent of the time.

That is not to say Labor will rubberstamp every piece of legislation that comes its way but it is likely to save its opposition for the big ticket items it wants to make a statement on.

TLDR: Labor has the numbers to deliver a majority, and votes with the Government 40 per cent of the time.

The crossbench will get more complicated

When both the Greens and Labor oppose a piece of legislation, then this is where the significance of Senator Bernardi’s vote will come into play.

It’s also where things really start to get complicated.

With 10 votes needed to pass legislation if Labor and the Greens are opposed, the Coalition will need to win the support of:

• all four One Nation senators;
• all three Nick Xenophon Team senators; and
• three of the other five crossbenchers — Jacqui Lambie, Derryn Hinch, David Leyonhjelm, Bob Day’s replacement, and now Cory Bernardi.
• Or if Labor gets Bob Day’s seat the Government will need three of the four crossbenchers.

In other words, in this scenario the Government will have to negotiate with at least five different groups  — and get them all to agree.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party and Nick Xenophon’s NXT remain critical. Either one of those can veto  any legislation that requires the crossbenchers.

While both One Nation and NXT rode a surge of anti-establishment sentiment on election day, their platforms are substantially different, and neither is a perfect match for Senator Bernardi.

He may find common ground with One Nation through a shared crusade against Islam and immigration, but economically he remains committed to Liberal economic policies like free trade, which stands in contrast to One Nation’s protectionism.

TLDR: If Labor and the Greens are out then the Government will now need to do deals with five different groups.

So what’s happening to Bob Day’s seat?

Bob Day was a South Australian senator who represented the Family First Party, the home state of Senator Bernardi and crossbencher Nick Xenophon’s party.

He also runs a big building company, called the Home Australia Group, which ran into financial trouble last year, forcing him to resign — as anyone who is bankrupt or insolvent can’t be a senator.

Normally in this situation Family First would fill their seat with the second candidate on the ballot, but this is where it gets complicated. (Yep, sorry more complicated.)

The High Court is currently hearing arguments over whether Mr Day should have been allowed to stand for Parliament at the last election.

This is because he may have actually owned the building housing his electoral office, which could be a breach of the constitution (Candidates can’t benefit from Commonwealth funds).

If that’s the case then he should have never been allowed to stand for Parliament, which means there needs to be a recount. But if he should never have been on the ballot then that only leaves one Family First candidate, and you need two candidates to get a group voting square above the line.

Don’t understand it? Well, don’t worry, no-one else is sure exactly what this means, that’s why the High Court has to decide.

If it does decide against Family First, then according to ABC election analyst Antony Green (who does understand it), Labor will pick up an extra seat in Parliament, making life even more difficult for the Government.

TLDR: Bob Day had to quit, so now his seat is vacant. Either Family First or Labor is likely to fill it.

What about that other guy who lost his seat?

You’re probably thinking of Rod Culleton, a West Australian One Nation senator who the High Court decided had not been properly elected

He’ll most likely be replaced by his brother-in-law Peter Georgiou, who was One Nation’s second candidate in WA.

So that won’t really change anything about the numbers.

Credits:

Tim Leslie Ben Spraggon Colin Gourlay Matt Liddy

This post originally appeared on ABC News.